Análisis de la capacidad de soporte de los recursos hídricos mediante un marco integrado de modelización y basado en indicadores: estudio de caso de la cuenca hidrográfica de Bakhtiari
Palabras clave:
capacidad de carga, salud ambiental, recursos hídricos, cuenca hidrográfica de Bakhtiari , IránBarra lateral del artículo
Contenido principal del artículo
En los últimos años, el creciente deterioro ambiental a nivel mundial ha intensificado la necesidad de evaluar los impactos de las actividades humanas y de armonizar el desarrollo socioeconómico con ecosistemas sostenibles. Entre los diversos enfoques para evaluar las interacciones ser humano–medio ambiente, el concepto de capacidad de carga de los recursos hídricos (adaptado del marco más amplio de la capacidad de carga) ha surgido como una herramienta valiosa en la gestión del agua.
Este estudio presenta un marco integrado que combina modelización por simulación, evaluación basada en indicadores y un factor presión–soporte para evaluar la capacidad de carga de los recursos hídricos. El método propuesto aborda dos limitaciones importantes de estudios previos: la consideración insuficiente del estado de la salud ambiental y la comparabilidad limitada entre indicadores.
El marco se aplicó a la cuenca hidrográfica de Bakhtiari (Irán) para el período 2003–2023, dividido en tres intervalos: 2003–2009, 2009–2017 y 2017–2023. Las evaluaciones se realizaron tanto de forma anual como por intervalos.
Los resultados muestran que la carga sobre los recursos hídricos se mantuvo dentro de la capacidad de carga únicamente durante el primer período, mientras que se presentó una sobrecarga en el segundo y tercer períodos. Tanto la capacidad de carga como la salud ambiental disminuyeron de manera significativa, alcanzando sus niveles más bajos en el último período. El análisis presión–soporte reveló un aumento de las presiones sobre los recursos hídricos junto con una reducción continua de la capacidad de soporte, impulsada en gran medida por políticas de rápido desarrollo económico que descuidaron la sostenibilidad.
La fuerte concordancia entre los resultados y las condiciones regionales observadas destaca la aplicabilidad del marco para la evaluación de políticas, el análisis de escenarios y la prospectiva. Este enfoque proporciona una base sólida para evaluar los impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de las estrategias de gestión de los recursos hídricos en contextos similares.
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